What Goes Around

Will they, won’t they?

Shortly the Scots will be voting upon whether or not they wish to remain part of the United Kingdom. It’s neck-and-neck presently, nip-and-tuck, with barely 2% in it according to the pollsters.  If they do ‘retire’ from the UK, then what happens to the Union Jack?  If the Scots take their blue and white St Andrew’s Cross with them the flag is going to look pretty funny and organisations like British Airways are going to have to fund a massive re-paint job.

This got me thinking.  In Shakespeare’s time when Queen Elizabeth 1 died without direct heir to the throne, James of Scotland became King and set about  developing the concept of Britain: a Scot!  Now, 400 odd years later the Scots could be about to tear that up and vote for nationality rather than unity.   It is a very long cycle: nation to union to nation, but maybe we just don’t see these cycles happening.  Our parents and grandparents’ generations saw where extreme nationality could take us: to war.  Now in the seat of the origins of those wars (Europe principally) we have a community of nations that has expanded from the original 5 or 6 after the Treaty of Rome to one numbering almost thirty nations with peace through harmonisation and understanding being the basis of the Treaty (Article 3) which has effectively ‘kept the peace’ in Europe for the last 65 years.   Now, however, the strains of accommodating such different countries, cultures and national economic conditions is beginning to lead some countries and political forces to believe  that we are better off outside the EU: the UK (with or without Scotland) being a case in point: a referendum is to be held upon the idea of pulling out or staying in.   Some of the stronger countries in the EU (who are themselves in not inconsiderable difficulty with ‘La Crise’) are beginning to resent the costs of holding up the economies of countries which have not altogether managed to sustain themselves: Greece, Ireland, Portugal etc…..  Perhaps, when things get tough we do resort to ‘Charity begins at home’ … ‘Family first, then others‘, so it is hardly surprising.  Maybe we are witnessing the beginning of the end for the EU?

There are many other such cycles. After three terms of Mrs Thatcher’s conservatives, Mr Blair swept to power with the slogan: ‘It’s time for a change’.     Change doesn’t necessarily mean ‘better’, but it does mean ‘not this’ and ‘something / anything different’…. and sometimes this is what people want or can be persuaded to vote for: voting negatively against something rather than positively for something else.

I’ve been reading a lot of history recently:

• The History of Europe  (Martin Gilbert)
• Second World War  (Antony Beevor)
• The Cuban Missile Crisis  (Thirteen Days – Bobby Kennedy)
• First World War (The Guns of August’ – Barbara Tauchmann)
• The Trojan War  (Michael Wood)
• The History of India  (Michael Wood)

It is very revealing indeed.  One can see these same cycles, same pressures developing and then, like a volcano, exploding or fizzling out and going dormant (only to rear its head later!).

I have always appreciated we have much to learn from history, but until now I perhaps hadn’t really learned the lesson.

Today we may think we are more civilized, and yes, we have instantaneous global communications, networks, clever devices, incredibly powerful weapons…. but that doesn’t make us different from the time of the Greek / Trojan wars.  We are essentially the same and we resolve (or fail to resolve) our difficulties and let off pressure in the same ways: it is just HOW we do it and the speed and intensity of the result which changes.

Take this. Back to Britain and Religion.   King Henry 8th created a massive division in his own country by changing the state religion overnight from Catholic to Protestant which became violent.  Many were tortured and put to death in dreadfully cruel ways because they would not renounce their former faith (Sir / Saint Thomas Moore  case in point).  Now the world is feeling tensions between certain Moslem and Christian communities and even between sects within such communities (at exactly the same time that others are seeking to sow harmony with inter-faith movements).  Currently some of this is leading to extremism and faith-wars and outright inhuman barbarism.   This isn’t new.  There are strong patterns and cycles in history that show how these things are likely to play out.

The question is: do we read the pages of history anymore?        Do we see these cycles coming?…………….?