Future Technologies Brainstorm

You have all been doing some research concerning innovative technologies that are 'just around the corner' (set to impact in the near future).  Let's take these thoughts and try to build up a picture of how this is going to affect our lives personal and professional and those of our industries, companies, clients and competitors.

Good companies and organisations are always looking ahead to see what changes are almost certainly going to happen and to plan for the opportunities and threats that they imply.

History and management research suggests that it is those companies that DO attempt to look forward and make appropriate strategic plans (even if they don't achieve all of their objectives) which out-perform companies that have little or no forward vision.  The latter sort of company will always be a 'follower' (relatively low risk for relatively low profit) and will never be able to reap the benefits of 'first-mover advantage' (a calculated risk, but with the prospect of increased market share, improved brand recognition & value and premium profits).

Then, if we can 'plot' these changes to the business environment we can perhaps consider the impact upon our employers and the possibilities of new competitors entering the market with new products and services.

So, here is your list of new technologies and their impacts and implications:-

Innovation:  Nano techs

Nature: nano-scale, molecular level.

Impact: offers solutions to problems –> much research

Implications: the most important technologies… can act as drugs to cure illnesses.  Controls power and saves energy. Already used in chips.  Presently only at 1st generation level. Entering our lives since 2000.  Smaller, faster, cheaper, more powerful.

Application eg: self-cleaning windows. Temperature and light control.  Cars: self-repairing. Medical use?   Chip and pin people!!!!!

Innovation: non-laddering tights and stockings!

Nature A./A

Impact. Displace other materials; Bigger range of colours and thickness 'denier'. Lower level of production because they are longer-lasting.  Price is likely to be higher. 

Implications. Women may or may not adopt the idea depending upon the relationship between the added value and the increased price.

Innovation: Self-controlled robot.

Nature intelligence. Stronger, faster than humans.  Will replace humans in some technology.

Impact:  Free workers – but may displace us: manual tasks… repetitive / boring tasks, dangerous tasks.

Implications: independent intelligence –> conflict.  Lazier humans (couch potatoes).  20 / 30 years hence.

Innovation: Lawnmower robot.

Nature. self controlled / programmable …. ecological, produces fertiliser 'mulching mower'.

Impact..  very low noise.  Electric / solar powered.  Reduces pollution.

Implications.  displaces alternatives. more time for hobbies.  Reduces need for landscape companies to cut lawns.

Innovation: Re-using Algae  as Bio Fuel.

Nature. using something of no value to make high-value product.  Easy to grow anywhere. A crop for poor nations – just need sunlight / water / CO2.

Impact. could replace existing fossil fuels… but may not as the petro-chemical lobby is too strong….

Implications.  Low cost alternative. … BUT if bio-ethanol could reduce fuel supply.

Innovation: Teleportation!!!

Nature: moving from A to B without transport.

Impact: crime increases. saves time. 

Implications

Innovation: OLED Screens.  Flexible.

Nature. Semi-conducting organic compounds. Polymer technology based.

Impacts.  PC in pocket. – cloud computing attached.  Can be applied to all products with a screen.  Anything with heads-up display.

Big risk to traditional producers.  New entry opportunity…. with patent.

Innovation:  Eco-generator.

Nature.  Based on the Stirling engine…. household consumption and supply of energy to the grid.

Impacts. Controls 3 means of heating lighting etc with one product.  Can be self sufficient.  

Needs to be developed and to have a lower unit cost plus perhaps government subvention.

Innovation: Blood tests for genetic mutation.

Nature.  early warning of any genetic problems – so treatment can begin early.

Used only if there is a suspicion of illness / carrying a disease.

SIRI – speech recognition phone  GOOGLE SIRI APPLE for Video

Nature. True conversation with AI  Voice controls everything – not mouse / not keyboard.  No need for SMS.  Will go global in 5 years…. not just Apple, but all industry players.

Impact. Hello Sci-Fi!  and i-Robot.

Implications. Elderly can use. Disabled can use.  Potentially manufacturers of mice and keyboards go bust.  Maybe lower level of sales of 'traditional' computers.  3/4G market sees massive growth.  Apps rather than major software.  Homes and offices equipped with invisible 'cloud' rather than devices.  Everything backed up on the cloud.  Device becomes less important than the content.  'Boring shopping' may disappear….  Home delivery fleets expand.  Working from home …. less need for companies tio have high-rise blocks in big cities…. people move back to the country?

Concern: robots inherit the Earth!  Big brother…. identity theft.  24 hour x 365 connectivity with no way of unplugging!

Employer: Orange….  Appointments on phone – never handwrite or SMS or Word – just talk to the machine.  Dangerous because….. we may shut ourselves off from the real world.

 Home automation

Nature: function: comfort, energy optimisation, HVAC.  Can control by smart phone (see above). Attractive because:

• energy costs rising dramatically give a shorter rate of return period.
• cloud computing convergeance
• political – forcing new build to be more environmental and less energy-hungry.

Impact: improves quality of life and safety & communication.  Remote control.

Implications: save money… lowers CO2 emissions. Target market: building companies.

 Games incorporated in TV sets: w/o decoder.

Nature: Cameras and movement detectors incorporated in screens.  Pad/handset-free.

Impact: Big threat to the 'boxes' X Box, Wii, Playstation

Implications:  Box players sell own TV sets integrated or sell games to TV.  The Screen O(organic)LED becomes the key – all you need is that plus the 4G 'cloud'.   Become more involved / engaged in the game – closer to virtual reality…… 

Concern.  People get lost in the game?  Addiction?

 TV Evolution

Nature. Transmission of images.

Impact. International / global (satellites). Digital images (ditch analogue)

Implications. Content available on demand. Greater interactivity.  Everyone on TV.

 HIV Vaccine…..  / Cancer cures.

Nature.  Everyone vaccinated as babies / youngsters.

Impact. Stops propagation of HIV virus.

Implications.  More sexual freedom without risk?   No stigmatised community. African continent.  Lower healthcare costs.

Conclusions?

1. Most of these innovations have considerable knock-on effects: each affects the other to some degree

2. There seems to be much convergeance courtesy of cloud computing, 3/4G, minaturisation and especially speech recognition (perhaps because it doesn't require anything of us beyond that which we were born to do: communicate by speech).

3. The impacts and implications suggested are so dramatic and forecast for the relatively near future that it is essential that businesses actively plan NOW for this future in order to make and mould it (as Apple has done) rather than be put out of business by it.

4. Managers interested in their own narrow field or industry will pay for their 'tunnel vision' as they fail to see the consequences of the changes that are soon to become reality to which their clients and competitors will respond.

5. Technology is an extremely strong' driver' of change because:

• it presents opportunity to create new markets and products (market share)
• it offers potential gains to both producer and client/user in terms of :
  • economy
  • efficiency
  • effectiveness
  • equity

6. Not all the possibilities of new innovative technologies will be exploited: making it available is one thing – whether we will like / prefer it enough to want to adopt it, well, that is another thing entirely!